Like everything in the
Middle East, the politics are more complicated here than in other parts of the
world and the stakes are far graver. The recent political changes brought on
predominantly by the Arab Spring are nothing short of dramatic. Over the
past 5 years there have been overthrown governments in Egypt (twice), Yemen
(twice) and Tunisia; and ongoing civil wars in Iraq, Libya and Syria resulting
in many thousands of deaths. President Ben Ali of Tunisia escaped into exile to
Saudi Arabia while President Qaddafi of Libya wasn’t as fortunate. This is an
unforgiving environment and there is little to no room for egregious
errors.
Israel is a minuscule country
surrounded by the aforementioned turmoil and to make matters worse, almost
every other country in the Middle East would be happy to see Israel go
gentle into that good night and even offer considerable assistance in that
regard. The fact is that Israel is still facing, as it has faced throughout its
entire existence, an existential threat to its very survival. For that reason
the Israeli psyche is permeated with a strong urgency of living in the here and
now, and thus long term planning is not one of our strengths. We may be
the Start-Up Nation but we have no Intels, Apples or Googles simply because
they require a significant long-term view. By the same token, there is
also no subway in Israel’s largest metropolitan area of Tel Aviv (although Cairo
and Tehran do indeed have a modern subway system).
Despite the numerous
accusations to the contrary, I believe that PM Netanyahu’s trip to the US
Congress is not motivated by political in-fighting or jockeying for more
votes in the close upcoming Israeli election. For better or worse, PM
Netanyahu has made the issue of the Iranian nuclear bomb a central tenet of his
candidacy and term as PM because he earnestly believes that an Iranian nuclear
device poses an existential threat to the State of Israel. Considering the
dangers that lurk in this neighborhood and the margin of error, it is clear
that PM Netanyahu is merely channeling the environment of which he is a
product, and one cannot fault him for doing so. However, does this make him
right?
Well, I don’t think so. It
is clear that the Iranians will in fact obtain nuclear weapons in the very
foreseeable future and nothing can stop them at this stage. Yet at
the same time we must remember that Iran’s internal politics are as fractious
and Byzantine as Israel’s. In Iran power is not concentrated in the hands of a
single individual and Iranian politics has its share of conservatives (and
ultra-conservatives) like the former President Ahmadinejad and liberals
like the current President Rouhani, with a Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei sharing effective power.
The Ahmadinejad years
in particular have caused considerable economic loss and isolated Iran
even further and President Rouhani is now trying to improve Iran’s economic
plight by lifting the onerous sanctions. As such, Iran desperately needs this
P5+1 agreement to succeed in order to improve its economic standing and bring
much needed relief to the average Iranian citizen who are still suffering
greatly under the weight of years of economic hardships, government
mismanagement, cronyism and corruption, and economic stagnation which is set to
get worse with the recent drop in oil prices that is central to the
Iranian economy.
Yet what PM Netanyahu is
forgetting is that while Iranian foreign and military policies do
pose a risk to Israel and the Sunni-dominated Middle East, it does not
pose an existential threat to Israel’s very survival. Iran is not
seeking to annihilate Israel, not now or in the future, and it is
certainly not suicidal. Iran does not even share a common border with Israel.
This is not a band of crazy fanatics bent on destruction but rather an
extremely conservative Shiite Muslim country that seeks to project itself
militarily and politically in order to protect and strengthen its
co-religionists in other parts of the volatile and Sunni-dominated Middle East.
Are Iranians and
Israelis all going to sit down and sing Kumbaya anytime soon? Probably not
in my lifetime, but more importantly, we need to step back and assess the
Iranian nuclear bomb in the context of the current volatile Middle East where
Iran is not necessarily Israel’s most pressing issue.
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