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Syria Strike - January 2015
By Isaac Gerstman
By Isaac Gerstman
On Sunday, January 18, 2015, Israel
launched a missile attack on a three-car convoy on the Syrian side of Golan
Heights killing all the occupants. Israel has long been an ardent believer in
carrying out helicopter-borne or more recently UAV-borne missile attacks on high-value
moving targets. Obviously, the chances of collateral damage are greatly
diminished and the possibility of verifying the presence of the particular
target is greatly enhanced, whether through SIGINT, HUMINT and/or IMINT.
However, the recent strike is unique even for Israel for a number of reasons,
some of which carry geopolitical ramifications that might even risk a further
conflagration in the ever volatile Middle East.
Mohammed Ali Allahdadi
Initially, Israeli news outlets followed
by international news teams reported that the target of the strike was no other
than Jihad Mughniyeh, son of the late
Imad Mughniyeh, the arch-terrorist who was responsible for so many
deaths and kidnappings in Lebanon, especially during the 1980s.
What struck me right away
was the fact that Jihad, who was only recently appointed a few months earlier
by Hezbollah, was just 26 years old and with little to no operational
experience. Despite being the darling of Hassan Nasrallah it beggars belief to
think that the Israelis would risk an international operational strike in
a neighboring Arab country for such a low-level target. While one Israeli
newspaper pointed to the fact that Jihad's funeral was one of the largest
in recent memory, attesting to his 'symbolic significance to the
movement', I am quite confident that Israeli Military Intelligence was not
looking for a symbolic victory when carrying out the strike.
Also killed in the strike,
aside from a number of bodyguards from Hezbollah and the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards Corp. ("IRGC"), was Mohammed Issa, a
regional Hezbollah commander and Mohammed Ali Allahdadi, a general in the
IRGC's Quds Force, an elite unit specialising in special operations outside of
Iran.
Stating the Obvious
This was no run-of-the-mill
tactical strike. Why? Because the strike was in Syrian sovereign
territory; previous strikes in Syria (the 2007 nuclear reactor strike, May
2013 and December 2014 strikes on Damascus Airport warehouses) undoubtedly had
the Israeli Prime Minister's approval; it is impossible to carry out a mission
like this off-the-cuff since the organisational requirements to prepare
such missions are onerous and time-consuming. The helicopter and UAVs reported
in the area were not loitering looking for some fortuitous target to strike.
This was a well-planned operation and all those killed were, at the very least,
the intended targets. The real question is whether they were all
the intended targets. While Gen. Mohammad Ali Allahdadi undoubtedly makes a
tempting target for Israeli Military Intelligence, the geopolitical risks and
ramifications of the strike in such a volatile region on one of the main
political faultiness in the Middle East (where the borders of Lebanon,
Syria and Israel meet) makes me wonder whether the real target
was Mohammad Ali Allahdadi.
It has been reported that no
other than Gen. Qasim Soleimani, the head of the IRGC's Quds Force was in
Lebanon at the time. Gen. Soleimani is one of the most important players in the
Middle East and is single-handedly responsible for planning and
implementing Iranian extraterritorial military policies, particularly in Iraq,
Syria and Lebanon. The Jordanian Al Bawaba website claims that "informed
Syrian sources" had told the Lebanese daily Al Akbar that Gen.
Soleimani "stopped in Damascus about 10 days ago [on January 12th]
on his way to Beirut to meet the leadership of the resistance". This would place Gen. Soleimani in
Lebanon at the time of the strike. As such, it is reasonable to assume that
Gen. Soleimani, Hassan Nasrallah
and Mohammad Ali Allahdadi had all met in Beirut. Perhaps the Israelis
were hoping that Gen. Soleimani himself was part of that convoy -
inspecting positions just as Gen. Soleimani had inspected in Syria and
Iraq as part of the IRGC's efforts against ISIL, which had been heavily
reported in both the Iranian and Arab press as well as in the Western
press.
In any event, one thing is
certain. Hezbollah and Iran will be forced to retaliate. While Hezbollah would
like its pound of flesh, Iran will be extremely careful to ensure that any such
retaliation by Hezbollah does not lead to an all-out confrontation between
Hezbollah and Israel. Border skirmish yes, war no.
Iran on the other hand will
be looking to exact its revenge on a different front altogether. Either way, it
is not in Iran or Hezbollah’s interest to open a new front with Israel due to
their commitments fighting ISIL and Syrian rebels in Syria and combatting ISIL
in Iraq.
Excellent start to your blog!
ReplyDeleteI think we are seeing the first response to the Israeli strike. The border attack by Hezbollah today has clearly been authorised at the most senior levels within that organisation. Whether Hezbollah will be satisfied with the attack or will seek more Israeli 'blood' over the next few days/weeks has yet to be seen, but Iran have their own 'pride' to assuage and their response in my opinion is likely to be against an Israeli overseas target.
I agree Noah. Iran will want to strike Israel away from the Israel-Lebanon-Syria border. I expect to see an attack on an Israeli soft target in Africa or Asia, say an attack on an Israeli diplomat or businessman or perhaps Israeli backpackers.
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